Predictions review

Posted on 2nd Jul 2016 at 10:02 PM from Warwick, UK

At the start of 2016 I made some predictions for the year ahead. As we are now half way through the year it seems like a mid-term review is in order to see how these predictions are coming along.

1 - Schengen agreement will begin to fail

Nothing very much has happened with this. But post-Brexit there is still time.

2 - UK interest rate to remain at 0.5%

So far rates have remained at 0.5%. At the start of the year I predicted that they would rise in 2017 but now the Bank of England is suggesting lowering the rates, not raising them.

3 - George Osbourne to stand down as Chancellor

So far it is not George Osbourne that has stood down but David Cameron. But there is time yet.

4 - 2016 El Nino will hit crop production

At the start of the year I said "A shortage of crop yields will push prices up and the Bloomberg Agricultural Spot Index will reach a high of 330, up 35% on its current 245". Currently the index is up to 279. However it reached a peak of 299 on 8th June. So it could still make 330.

5 - The EU Referundum

I predicted remain. I'm happy to say that I was wrong and that we got the result that I wanted.

6 - Assad will be assassinated

So far this hasn't happened and it is looking less likely but we still have six months to go and a lot can change.

7 - Supermarkets to merge

This hasn't happened yet but it still looks likely. Given the post-Brexit turmoil it is less likely to happen in 2016 but watch this speace.

8 - Donald Trump to fade away

Mr Trump is still firmly on the scene so I got that part wrong but we might still see Hilary Clinton as president.

9 - Mark Carney to stand down

I'm still waiting to hear the announcement in 2016 that Carney will be moving on in 2017.

10 - FTSE 100 hits 6 year low

I made a prediction that the FTSE 100 will hit a low of 5300. So far the lowest point of the year was 5536 on 11th February and it is currently standing at 6577.

So far I can't say it is going terribly well!
But that's predictions for you...

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